With 61 games of data to look at, we have a very good impression now of who these Maple Leafs are.
But before we look at the charts and think about what it all means, let’s take a moment to remember the annoying thing about forecasting from Corsi data: you cannot apply it to the last few games of the season. You cannot say, oh look the Leafs’ Corsi percentage is good, so they should win more games than they lose. Uh-uh. There are too many random factors cluttering up the probabilities, particularly when the number of games remaining dips even lower.